ROIC Growth Formula

The ROIC growth formula relies on evaluating return on invested capital (also known as ROIC) as a way of looking at stocks that helps smart value investors find good stocks to buy.  First let’s look at what is return on invested capital, then we’ll examine why companies with comparatively large values of this key performance indicator tend to outperform their competition over time (and make good value investment candidates).

The first step in the ROIC growth formula is understanding how to calculate ROIC for the companies that you are thinking about investing in, so here is the formula:

(Net Operating Profit After Taxes) / (Invested Capital)

Now there are a couple of things that must be noted about this formula.  First, net operating profit after tax (NOPAT)is not the same thing as net income.  Net income counts money that a company receives from all sources, whereas NOPAT is derived from the sales that a business makes from the ongoing operations of its main business.  Some of the revenue that is not included in NOPAT are things like interest income from cash and cash equivalents (short term securities like T-Bills), and rent from real estate that the company may own, but sub-leases to other businesses because it is not currently needed by the company.  These types of revenue, that are not from sales of the companies main products and services, add noise to what we are seeking – a clear view of the company’s operating efficiency – so we take them out of the equation.  The second thing that we have to consider is that invested capital is not just equity (like what is used in return on equity (ROE) calculations), but also includes long term debt that is used to grow and sustain the business.

The ROIC growth formula is fairly simple – calculate the return on invested capital for the companies in the industry group you are considering investing in, identify the company with the highest value of this indicator, then buy it when it gets to a good price.  By comparing the return on invested capital values of companies in the same industry, the one with the highest return is likely to either continue dominating the industry, or, if it is not already dominating its industry, should outperform the industry over time.  If you think about it, the company with the highest return on invested capital is yielding a higher percentage of profit for every dollar invested in the company - either by equity share holders or debt bond holders.  The competitive advantage that allows a company to earn these higher than industry average returns are usually due to a dominating position in the market place, which makes it possible for them to charge more for their product or service relative to their cost, which leaves other companies in the sector competing based on price discounting (and lower margins).  Over time, this sustained competitive advantage allows the company with higher returns on invested capital to grow faster than its competition, which drives its stock price higher.

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Free Cash Flow

Free cash flow (FCF) is the left over cash a company has after paying for it’s growth and ongoing operations.  Free cash flow growth is another one of our primary indicators used for value stock picking, as it helps us gauge the relative health of a company.  The good thing about free cash flow is that it accounts for outlays of both expenses as well as capital asset purchases. 

How to calculate free cash flow

Learning how to calculate free cash flow is simple, and you can make it even more powerful when you use it together with other powerful value stock picking metrics, once you learn how to calculate ROIC and equity growth.  Free cash flow is calculated by subtracting capital expenditures from operating cash flow:

Free Cash Flow = Operating Cash Flow – Capital Expenditures

Operating cash flow is Net Income + Amortization/Depreciation – Changes in Working Capital

So the full Free Cash Flow formula looks like this:

Net Income + Depreciation/Amortization – Changes in Working Capital – Capital Expenditures
= Free Cash Flow

You can find the numbers for calculating free cash flow on annual or quarterly earnings statements for any public company you are examining.  Net Income and Depraciation/Amortization are on the income statement, working capital and capital expenditures are on the Cash Flow Statement (or Statement of Cash Flows).

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