ROIC Growth Formula

The ROIC growth formula relies on evaluating return on invested capital (also known as ROIC) as a way of looking at stocks that helps smart value investors find good stocks to buy.  First let’s look at what is return on invested capital, then we’ll examine why companies with comparatively large values of this key performance indicator tend to outperform their competition over time (and make good value investment candidates).

The first step in the ROIC growth formula is understanding how to calculate ROIC for the companies that you are thinking about investing in, so here is the formula:

(Net Operating Profit After Taxes) / (Invested Capital)

Now there are a couple of things that must be noted about this formula.  First, net operating profit after tax (NOPAT)is not the same thing as net income.  Net income counts money that a company receives from all sources, whereas NOPAT is derived from the sales that a business makes from the ongoing operations of its main business.  Some of the revenue that is not included in NOPAT are things like interest income from cash and cash equivalents (short term securities like T-Bills), and rent from real estate that the company may own, but sub-leases to other businesses because it is not currently needed by the company.  These types of revenue, that are not from sales of the companies main products and services, add noise to what we are seeking – a clear view of the company’s operating efficiency – so we take them out of the equation.  The second thing that we have to consider is that invested capital is not just equity (like what is used in return on equity (ROE) calculations), but also includes long term debt that is used to grow and sustain the business.

The ROIC growth formula is fairly simple – calculate the return on invested capital for the companies in the industry group you are considering investing in, identify the company with the highest value of this indicator, then buy it when it gets to a good price.  By comparing the return on invested capital values of companies in the same industry, the one with the highest return is likely to either continue dominating the industry, or, if it is not already dominating its industry, should outperform the industry over time.  If you think about it, the company with the highest return on invested capital is yielding a higher percentage of profit for every dollar invested in the company - either by equity share holders or debt bond holders.  The competitive advantage that allows a company to earn these higher than industry average returns are usually due to a dominating position in the market place, which makes it possible for them to charge more for their product or service relative to their cost, which leaves other companies in the sector competing based on price discounting (and lower margins).  Over time, this sustained competitive advantage allows the company with higher returns on invested capital to grow faster than its competition, which drives its stock price higher.

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ROIC, or  Return On Invested Capital, is one of my favorite value investing indicators for trying to forecast the financial performance of a company’s stock.  If you think about earnings growth at a high level, most companies have to pay a price to achieve earnings growth – by issuing stock, selling long term bonds (debt), investing in assets, and/or investing in working capital.  ROIC is a superior way to measure this cost to achieve growth, and to compare one company’s financial performance to another company’s, or for that matter, to the performance of an industry group as a whole.  In a nutshell, ROIC is a way of determining the amount of cash earnings a company produces for every dollar invested, and is a primary tool for value investing, along with equity growth rate, earnings yield, and free cash flow growth.

You may already be familiar with one of the cousins of ROIC – Return on Equity (ROE).  ROE, which divides net income by the average shareholder equity over the time period being examined, is also a good measure of a company’s financial performance, and a favorite stock value indicator among value investors.  Click here if you want to learn more about what is Return On Equity.  The downside of ROE is that it does not take into account certain balance sheet liabilities that are being used to power a company’s growth, thus ROE may overstate the company’s economic efficiency.  ROIC corrects this issue, which is why I like it better than ROE.

ROIC is a good way to measure the quality of earnings growth, and is calculated with Net Operating Profit After Taxes (NOPAT) to focus on that earnings quality.  Lets use an example:  Company ABC sells a popular line of widgets, and earned $20 million last year.  This year, they decide to expand, and take on $20 billion in debt to finance that growth.  They are successful, and their earning double to $40 million.  Investors focusing on earnings growth are ecstatic – the company doubled it’s yearly earnings.  ROIC investors, however, are probably running for the exits, because they see that while the company doubled it’s earnings, the debt the company took on to finance that earnings growth only yielded a 1% return ($20 million divided by $20 billion), which is a very inefficient use of dollars invested in the company.  ROIC, unlike ROE or earnings growth, will highlight that inefficient use of dollars.  Investors looking for value stocks should look for high returns on invested dollars, as represented by ROIC, in addition to other key fundamental measures like business revenue growth.

Next up we will look at how to calculate ROIC.

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